Machine learning and XAI approaches highlight the strong connection between O 3 and N O 2 pollutants and Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common type of dementia with millions of affected patients worldwide. Currently, there is still no cure and AD is often diagnosed long time after onset because there is no clear diagnosis. Thus, it is essential to study the physiology and pathogenesis of AD, investigating the risk factors that could be strongly connected to the disease onset. Despite AD, like other complex diseases, is the result of the combination of several factors, there is emerging agreement that environmental pollution should play a pivotal role in the causes of disease. In this work, we implemented an Artificial Intelligence model to predict AD mortality, expressed as Standardized Mortality Ratio, at Italian provincial level over 5 years. We employed a set of publicly available variables concerning pollution, health, society and economy to feed a Random Forest algorithm. Using methods based on eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) we found that air pollution (mainly O 3 and N O 2 ) contribute the most to AD mortality prediction. These results could help to shed light on the etiology of Alzheimer's disease and to confirm the urgent need to further investigate the relationship between the environment and the disease.

The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit.

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling.

A Dementia mortality rates dataset in Italy (2012-2019).

Dementia is on the rise in the world population and has been defined by the World Health Organization as a global public health priority. In Italy, according to demographic projections, in 2051 there will be 280 elderly people for every 100 young people, with an increase in all age-related chronic diseases, including dementia. Currently the total number of patients with dementia is estimated to be over 1 million (mainly with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Parkinson's disease (PD)). In-depth studies of the etiology and physiology of dementia are complicated due to the complexity of these diseases and their long duration. In this work we present a dataset on mortality rates (in the form of Standardized Mortality Ratios, SMR) for AD e PD in Italy at provincial level over a period of 8 years (2012-2019). Access to long-term, spatially detailed and ready-to-use data could favor both health monitoring and the research of new treatments and new drugs as well as innovative methodologies for early diagnosis of dementia.

The spatial association between environmental pollution and long-term cancer mortality in Italy.

Tumours are nowadays the second world­leading cause of death after cardiovascular diseases. During the last decades of cancer research, lifestyle and random/genetic factors have been blamed for cancer mortality, with obesity, sedentary habits, alcoholism, and smoking contributing as supposed major causes. However, there is an emerging consensus that environmental pollution should be considered one of the main triggers. Unfortunately, all this preliminary scientific evidence has not always been followed by governments and institutions, which still fail to pursue research on cancer's environmental connections. In this unprecedented national-scale detailed study, we analyzed the links between cancer mortality, socio-economic factors, and sources of environmental pollution in Italy, both at wider regional and finer provincial scales, with an artificial intelligence approach. Overall, we found that cancer mortality does not have a random or spatial distribution and exceeds the national average mainly when environmental pollution is also higher, despite healthier lifestyle habits. Our machine learning analysis of 35 environmental sources of pollution showed that air quality ranks first for importance concerning the average cancer mortality rate, followed by sites to be reclaimed, urban areas, and motor vehicle density. Moreover, other environmental sources of pollution proved to be relevant for the mortality of some specific cancer types. Given these alarming results, we call for a rearrangement of the priority of cancer research and care that sees the reduction and prevention of environmental contamination as a priority action to put in place in the tough struggle against cancer.

A ten-year (2009-2018) database of cancer mortality rates in Italy.

In Italy, approximately 400.000 new cases of malignant tumors are recorded every year. The average of annual deaths caused by tumors, according to the Italian Cancer Registers, is about 3.5 deaths and about 2.5 per 1,000 men and women respectively, for a total of about 3 deaths every 1,000 people. Long-term (at least a decade) and spatially detailed data (up to the municipality scale) are neither easily accessible nor fully available for public consultation by the citizens, scientists, research groups, and associations. Therefore, here we present a ten-year (2009-2018) database on cancer mortality rates (in the form of Standardized Mortality Ratios, SMR) for 23 cancer macro-types in Italy on municipal, provincial, and regional scales. We aim to make easily accessible a comprehensive, ready-to-use, and openly accessible source of data on the most updated status of cancer mortality in Italy for local and national stakeholders, researchers, and policymakers and to provide researchers with ready-to-use data to perform specific studies.

The number of tree species on Earth.

One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global ground-sourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are ∼73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness.

Diversity regained: Precautionary approaches to COVID-19 as a phenomenon of the total environment.

As COVID-19 emerged as a phenomenon of the total environment, and despite the intertwined and complex relationships that make humanity an organic part of the Bio- and Geospheres, the majority of our responses to it have been corrective in character, with few or no consideration for unintended consequences which bring about further vulnerability to unanticipated global events. Tackling COVID-19 entails a systemic and precautionary approach to human-nature relations, which we frame as regaining diversity in the Geo-, Bio-, and Anthropospheres. Its implementation requires nothing short of an overhaul in the way we interact with and build knowledge from natural and social environments. Hence, we discuss the urgency of shifting from current to precautionary approaches to COVID-19 and look, through the lens of diversity, at the anticipated benefits in four systems crucially affecting and affected by the pandemic: health, land, knowledge and innovation. Our reflections offer a glimpse of the sort of changes needed, from pursuing planetary health and creating more harmonious forms of land use to providing a multi-level platform for other ways of knowing/understanding and turning innovation into a source of global public goods. These exemplary initiatives introduce and solidify systemic thinking in policymaking and move priorities from reaction-based strategies to precautionary frameworks.

The need to understand the stability of arctic vegetation during rapid climate change: An assessment of imbalance in the literature.

In early studies, northern vegetation response to global warming recognised both increases in biomass/cover and shrinking of species' distributional ranges. Subsequent field measurements focussed on vegetation cover and biomass increases ("greening"), and more recently decreases ("browning"). However, satellite observations show that more than 50% of arctic vegetation has not changed significantly despite rapid warming. While absence of change in remote sensing data does not necessarily mean no ecological change on the ground, the significant proportion of the Arctic that appears to be stable in the face of considerable climate change points to a greater need to understand Arctic ecosystem stability. In this paper, we performed an extensive review of the available literature to seek balances or imbalances between research focussing on "greening", "browning" and "stability/no change". We find that greening studies dominate the literature though two relatively small areas of the Arctic are disproportionately represented for this main change process. Critically, there are too few studies anywhere investigating stability. We highlight the need to understand the mechanisms driving Arctic ecosystem stability, and the potential longer-term consequences of remaining stable in a rapidly changing climate.

Why We Will Continue to Lose Our Battle with Cancers If We Do Not Stop Their Triggers from Environmental Pollution.

Besides our current health concerns due to COVID-19, cancer is a longer-lasting and even more dramatic pandemic that affects almost a third of the human population worldwide. Most of the emphasis on its causes has been posed on genetic predisposition, chance, and wrong lifestyles (mainly, obesity and smoking). Moreover, our medical weapons against cancers have not improved too much during the last century, although research is in progress. Once diagnosed with a malignant tumour, we still rely on surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. The main problem is that we have focused on fighting a difficult battle instead of preventing it by controlling its triggers. Quite the opposite, our knowledge of the links between environmental pollution and cancer has surged from the 1980s. Carcinogens in water, air, and soil have continued to accumulate disproportionally and grow in number and dose, bringing us to today's carnage. Here, a synthesis and critical review of the state of the knowledge of the links between cancer and environmental pollution in the three environmental compartments is provided, research gaps are briefly discussed, and some future directions are indicated. New evidence suggests that it is relevant to take into account not only the dose but also the time when we are exposed to carcinogens. The review ends by stressing that more dedication should be put into studying the environmental causes of cancers to prevent and avoid curing them, that the precautionary approach towards environmental pollutants must be much more reactionary, and that there is an urgent need to leave behind the outdated petrochemical-based industry and goods production.

Diversity lost: COVID-19 as a phenomenon of the total environment.

If we want to learn how to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, we have to embrace the complexity of this global phenomenon and capture interdependencies across scales and contexts. Yet, we still lack systematic approaches that we can use to deal holistically with the pandemic and its effects. In this Discussion, we first introduce a framework that highlights the systemic nature of the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of the total environment as a self-regulating and evolving system comprising of three spheres, the Geosphere, the Biosphere, and the Anthroposphere. Then, we use this framework to explore and organize information from the rapidly growing number of scientific papers, preprints, preliminary scientific reports, and journalistic pieces that give insights into the pandemic crisis. With this work, we point out that the pandemic should be understood as the result of preconditions that led to depletion of human, biological, and geochemical diversity as well as of feedback that differentially impacted the three spheres. We contend that protecting and promoting diversity, is necessary to contribute to more effective decision-making processes and policy interventions to face the current and future pandemics.

Machine learning reveals that prolonged exposure to air pollution is associated with SARS-CoV-2 mortality and infectivity in Italy.

Air pollution can increase the risk of respiratory diseases, enhancing the susceptibility to viral and bacterial infections. Some studies suggest that small air particles facilitate the spread of viruses and also of the new coronavirus, besides the direct person-to-person contagion. However, the effects of the exposure to particulate matter and other contaminants on SARS-CoV-2 has been poorly explored. Here we examined the possible reasons why the new coronavirus differently impacted on Italian regional and provincial populations. With the help of artificial intelligence, we studied the importance of air pollution for mortality and positivity rates of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Italy. We discovered that among several environmental, health, and socio-economic factors, air pollution and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), as its main component, resulted as the most important predictors of SARS-CoV-2 effects. We also found that the emissions from industries, farms, and road traffic - in order of importance - might be responsible for more than 70% of the deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 nationwide. Given the major contribution played by air pollution (much more important than other health and socio-economic factors, as we discovered), we projected that, with an increase of 5-10% in air pollution, similar future pathogens may inflate the epidemic toll of Italy by 21-32% additional cases, whose 19-28% more positives and 4-14% more deaths. Our findings, demonstrating that fine-particulate (PM2.5) pollutant level is the most important factor to predict SARS-CoV-2 effects that would worsen even with a slight decrease of air quality, highlight that the imperative of productivity before health and environmental protection is, indeed, a short-term/small-minded resolution.

Do not blame bats and pangolins! Global consequences for wildlife conservation after the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

This pandemic situation requests a correct understanding of our impacts on wildlife conservation, which would also provide benefits for our species. In this commentary we revised and discussed some of the repercussions that SARS-CoV-2 pandemic may have to wildlife. We propose four actions that should be taken into account to protect and conserve wildlife in this pandemic era: wildlife "wet" markets must close; human interference with wildlife must be reduced; bats and pangolins must be conserved and not blamed; and Chinese traditional medicine must be more controlled.

Certified "sustainable" palm oil took the place of endangered Bornean and Sumatran large mammals habitat and tropical forests in the last 30 years.

Tropical forests inhabited by endangered orangutans, rhinos, tigers, and elephants in South-east Asia are threatened by deforestation, including oil palm expansion. Certification has been proposed to label sustainable palm oil production. However, from a remotely sensed time-series and imagery analysis (1984-2020), we discovered that most of the currently certified grower supply bases and concessions in Sumatra and Borneo are located in the 1990s large mammals habitat and in areas that were biodiverse tropical forests less than 30 years ago. In light of this dramatic evidence, we suggest that certification schemes claim for the "sustainable" production of palm oil just because they neglect a very recent past of deforestation and habitat degradation.

Accelerating upward treeline shift in the Altai Mountains under last-century climate change.

Treeline shift and tree growth often respond to climatic changes and it is critical to identify and quantify their dynamics. Some regions are particularly sensitive to climate change and the Altai Mountains, located in Central and East Asia, are showing unequivocal signs. The mean annual temperature in the area has increased by 1.3-1.7 °C in the last century. As this mountain range has ancient and protected forests on alpine slopes, we focus on determining the treeline structure and dynamics. We integrated in situ fine-scale allometric data with analyses from dendrochronological samples, high-resolution 3D drone photos and new satellite images to study the dynamics and underlying causal mechanisms of any treeline movement and growth changes in a remote preserved forest at the Aktru Research Station in the Altai Mountain. We show that temperature increase has a negative effect on mountain tree growth. In contrast, only younger trees grow at higher altitudes and we document a relatively fast upward shift of the treeline. During the last 52 years, treeline moved about 150 m upward and the rate of movement accelerated until recently. Before the 1950s, it never shifted over 2150-2200 m a.s.l. We suggest that a continuous upward expansion of the treeline would be at the expense of meadow and shrub species and radically change this high-mountain ecosystem with its endemic flora. This documented treeline shift represents clear evidence of the increased velocity of climate change during the last century.

Sustainable palm oil may not be so sustainable.

The globalization of the palm oil trade poses a menace to the ecosystem integrity of Southeast Asia. In this short communication, we briefly discuss why palm oil certifications may have failed as an effective means to halt forest degradation and biodiversity loss. From a comparison of multiple new datasets, we analysed recent tree loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea, and discovered that, from 2001 to 2016, about 40% of the area located in certified concessions suffered from habitat degradation, deforestation, fires, or other tree damages. Certified concessions have been subject to more tree removals than non-certified ones. We also detect significant tree loss before and after the start of certification schemes. Beyond non-governmental organisations' concern that Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) and Palm Oil Innovation Group (POIG) certifications allow ongoing clearance of any forest not identified as of high conservation values (HCV) or high carbon stock (HCS), we suggest an alarming and previously overlooked situation, such as that current "sustainable palm oil" is often associated with recent habitat degradation and forest loss. In other words, certified palm oil production may not be so sustainable.

The last 50 years of climate-induced melting of the Maliy Aktru glacier (Altai Mountains, Russia) revealed in a primary ecological succession.

In this article, we report and discuss the results obtained from a survey of plants, microorganisms (bacteria and fungi), and soil elements along a chronosequence in the first 600 m of the Maliy Aktru glacier's forefront (Altai Mountains, Russia). Many glaciers of the world show effects of climate change. Nonetheless, except for some local reports, the ecological effects of deglaciation have been poorly studied and have not been quantitatively assessed in the Altai Mountains. Here, we studied the ecological changes of plants, fungi, bacteria, and soil elements that take the form of a primary ecological succession and that took place over the deglaciated soil of the Maliy Aktru glacier during the last 50 year. According to our measurements, the glacier lost about 12 m per year during the last 50 years. Plant succession shows clear signs of changes along the incremental distance from the glacier forefront. The analysis of the plant α- and ß-diversity confirmed an expected increase of them with increasing distance from the glacier forefront. Moreover, the analysis of ß-diversity confirmed the hypothesis of the presence of three main stages of the plant succession: (a) initial (pioneer species) from 30 to 100 m; (b) intermediate (r-selected species) from 110 to 120-150 m; and (c) final (K-selected species) from 150 to 550. Our study also shows that saprotrophic communities of fungi are widely distributed in the glacier retreating area with higher relative abundances of saprotroph ascomycetes at early successional stages. The evolution of a primary succession is also evident for bacteria, soil elements, and CO 2 emission and respiration. The development of biological communities and the variation in geochemical parameters represent an irrefutable proof that climate change is altering soils that have been long covered by ice.

Niche emergence as an autocatalytic process in the evolution of ecosystems.

The utilisation of the ecospace and the change in diversity through time has been suggested to be due to the effect of niche partitioning, as a global long-term pattern in the fossil record. However, niche partitioning, as a way to coexist, could be a limited means to share the environmental resources and condition during evolutionary time. In fact, a physical limit impedes a high partitioning without a high restriction of the niche's variables. Here, we propose that niche emergence, rather than niche partitioning, is what mostly drives ecological diversity. In particular, we view ecosystems in terms of autocatalytic sets: catalytically closed and self-sustaining reaction (or interaction) networks. We provide some examples of such ecological autocatalytic networks, how this can give rise to an expanding process of niche emergence (both in time and space), and how these networks have evolved over time (so-called evoRAFs). Furthermore, we use the autocatalytic set formalism to show that it can be expected to observe a power-law in the size distribution of extinction events in ecosystems. In short, we elaborate on our earlier argument that new species create new niches, and that biodiversity is therefore an autocatalytic process.

The role of Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) in the storage, emission and deposition of carbon in lakes and rivers of the River Ob flood plain, western Siberia.

Several studies have reported significant emission of greenhouse gasses (GHG) from beaver dams, suggesting that ponds created by beavers are a net source of CO2 and CH4. However, most evidence come from studies conducted in North America (on Castor canadensis) without a parallel comparison with the Eurasian beaver's (Castor fiber) impacts and a critical consideration of the importance of the carbon deposition in dam sediments. The most abundant population of the Eurasian beaver lives in Russia, notably within the River Ob watershed in Western Siberia which is the second largest floodplain on Earth. Consequently, we assessed the holistic impact of Eurasian beavers on the multiple carbon pools in water and on other related biogeochemical parameters of the Ob's floodplain streams. We compared dammed and flowing streams in a floodplain of the middle course of the river. We found that beavers in western Siberia increase the stream emission of methane by about 15 times by building their dams. This is similar to what has been documented in North America. A new finding from the present study is that Siberian beavers facilitate 1) nutrient recycling by speeding up the nutrient release from particulate organic matter; and 2) carbon sequestration by increasing the amount of dissolved organic carbon. This carbon becomes in part recalcitrant when buried in sediments and is, therefore, removed from the short-term carbon cycle. These new results should be taken into consideration in river management and provide a further reason for the conservation and management of Eurasian Beavers.

endogenosymbiosis: from hypothesis to empirical evidence towards a Unified Symbiogenetic Theory (UST).

In 1967 Lynn (Sagan) Margulis proposed that mitochondria, photosynthetic plastids and cilia were acquired prokaryotes and evolved symbiotically to form anaerobic bacteria, photosynthetic bacteria and eventually algae. Although most of this theory is well-accepted now, the hypothesis that endosymbiotic spirochaetes developed into eukaryotic flagella and cilia, and the following proposals of an endosymbiotic origin of other eukaryotic organelles such as peroxisomes, glyoxysomes, etc. have not received much acceptance, since evidence suggests they lack a genome and do not show ultrastructural similarities to bacteria or archaea. Nevertheless, the idea that over millennia mitochondria, plastids, prokaryotic and eukaryotic cells and even flagella and peroxisomes, as either primary or secondary endosymbionts, transferred some or all of their own DNA to the host cell’s nucleus through a process called «endogenosymbiosis¼ (i.e. a symbiotic gene transfer, such as the internalisation of the endosymbiont’s DNA with lateral transfer) has been recently suggested. This endogenosymbiosis could take place during the evolutionary transition from the symbiotic interacting community, invoked by Margulis, to a fully-integrated (either prokaryotic or eukaryotic) cell. This process could explain the missing evidence of the presence of DNA in flagella and peroxisomes whose ancestor endosymbionts, during the long endogenosymbiotic evolution, could have transferred their whole genome to the host cell that subsequently integrated it in its own genome, directly controlling its expression. Furthermore, the endogenosymbiosis hypothesis could be the explanation of the transition between an RNA to a DNA world and of some cases of true sympatric evolution of species, apparently inexplicable by the canonical speciation processes. Here, after an introduction to the theoretical basis of endogenosymbiosis and a discussion of the empirical confirming evidence, I show a graphical summary of the integration between this and the former endosymbiosis theories. The Serial Endosymbiosis Theory and the Secondary Endosymbiosis are merged with the Endogenosymbiosis Theory in a Unified Symbiogenetic Theory (UST).